Ukraine situation report

6/24/2022 by Robert Homans, Twitter: @rhomansjr

Compiled by: Robert Homans

Ukraine – An EU Candidate Country

Yesterday afternoon my wife came into my office.  She was in tears.   I thought perhaps a relative had died, or a tragedy related to the war.  No, it was the announcement that Ukraine had been approved by EU Heads of State as a candidate country.   This is a big deal, not only for Ukraine but also for the EU.   Here are my thoughts:

·      As if Ukrainians need more motivation, EU candidate status gives Ukraine one more reason to fight.

·      Despite what they may say, Ukraine achieving EU candidate status is a huge defeat for Russia.  This really is becoming a war between Russia and the EU, with Ukraine on the point.

·      My prediction is that it will take 7 years for Ukraine to join the EU as a full member, about the same amount of time as Croatia.

·      Assuming Ukraine does join, the locus of power in the EU will move from France, Germany, Italy, and the Low Countries, to Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Ukraine.

·      Another prediction is that the sticking point for Ukraine’s membership won’t be issues relating to Ukraine embracing the Rule of Law, or eradicating corruption.  Instead, it will be the fact that Ukraine is the low-cost agricultural producer.   Once a member, Ukraine could blow French and German farms out of the water.  Agriculture has always been a point of conflict among current EU Members; Ukraine will be no different.

·      Another sticking point may be Ukraine’s banning of some opposition political parties (see below).  Some, like the Opposition Party – For Life run by Viktor Medvedchuk Putin’s “Man” in Ukraine, should be banned.  Others may not be.

·      EU countries are now tethered to Ukraine’s success in the war.  They won’t want a truncated Ukraine joining the EU.

·      Reformers and anti-corruption activists in Ukraine will receive sustained support from EU experts, something that has previously only come in fits and starts.

Ukraine has embraced EU values at least since 2014, the end of the Revolution of Dignity.  It is sad that it has taken a war for the EU to open its eyes to this fact.   There will be significant issues to be resolved, especially in agriculture, but Ukraine will become an EU Member State, by the end of this Decade.

Military Developments

·      Ukraine Withdraws From Sievierodonetsk – Not long after Russia started its Donbas offensive in early April, most predicted that Russia would take Sievierodonetsk in 2 weeks.  It has been 2 months, during which time Russia has incurred large casualties and significant loss of equipment.   It is also possible that Donbas is serving as a means to draw off Russian troops from Kherson, where Ukraine is now achieving some success.

·      Ukraine is advancing in Kherson Oblast.   Ukraine has put a partial news blackout on its activities in Kherson Oblast.   Kherson has, arguably, more strategic value to Ukraine than does Donbas.   Kherson sites on the mouth of the Dnieper River, and the city is part of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.    The Mayor of neighboring Mykolaiv has ordered residents to evacuate.

6/24 Sitrep (My comments in bold face)

Mid-summer rains have started in most of Ukraine.  As usual this is bad news for farmers who are starting or in the process of harvesting winter wheat, barley, and rapeseed.  However, it's good news for many other Ukrainians who have been waiting for the wild mushroom season to begin.

The summer mushroom season is usually accompanied by numerous cases of mushroom poisoning.  In a typical year there are three to four mortalities and a couple of hundred poisonings from picking and eating poisonous mushrooms.  This year in addition to losses related to culinary cravings the mushroom season will bring fatal consequences from personnel mines, unexploded ordinance and booby traps left behind by Russian invaders.

To illustrate the danger of going to the woods in 2022, the following news from the Sumy Regional Military Administration:  June 23 A police car exploded on a mine while patrolling the territory in the Okhtyrka district, and two officers were injured. Later, a second explosion was heard at the site where the technicians and investigators were working. As a result, five more people were injured.

If that’s not enough, there are still unexploded mines around going back to WW-II.  When we visit my brother-in-law’s dacha outside of Kyiv, he always tells me that if I wanted to take a walk, to stick to the marked paths.   As recently as 2008, 40 – 50 Ukrainians were killed from stepping on a WW-II era mine.

Going to the woods in liberated Ukraine to gather mushrooms and wild berries has become a more deadly pastime for many years to come.

INTERNATIONAL

The European Council has taken a historic decision against the background of the war in Europe. The European Union has granted Ukraine the status of a candidate country for membership. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell welcomed the decision in a joint video message.

Euractiv:  Portuguese Prime Minister said that Ukraine's integration into the EU could lead to its destruction, not strengthening, and could even become a trap for Ukraine itself if consistent decisions are not made.

Aftonbladet:  An officer of the Swedish army with the rank of lieutenant colonel says that Russian artillery is aiming at peaceful targets in Mykolaiv.  According to the Scandinavian military, Russia relies on the tactics of destroying the economic potential of Ukraine, so during the latest strikes on Mykolaiv, it aimed primarily at civilian infrastructure and facilities.   Today, the Ukrainian High Command asked that residents of Mykolaiv leave the city.

Energy Transition Minister of France:  France will be able to do without Russian gas.  “We can do without Russian gas, assuming that all LNG tankers arrive on time and that we can comfortably fill our strategic storage facility”

●      Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has previously clarified that France intends to fill its gas storage facilities by almost 100% by early autumn and is going to build a new floating LNG terminal next year to ensure its supplies, despite the drop in supplies from Russia.

The Financial Times:  Spain will pay 2 billion euros for 20 Eurofighter fighters.  Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said that he would increase defense spending after Russia’s attack on Ukraine.  The aircraft will replace the old Spanish F-18 Hornet fighters based at Gando Air Force Base in the Canary Islands and augment the two squadrons of Typhoon aircraft.

European Business Association (EBA):  In the first five months of the year, Russians bought 318 114 cars. This is 52% less than last year. The fall of the Russian car market is showing no signs of stopping or slowing down.   Due to the effects of Western sanctions, some Russian car factories are producing cars without seatbelts, radios and other components that they import from factories in Europe.

Voice of America:  The US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations approved a resolution recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The final decision must be made by President Joe Biden’s administration.

●      Washington wants Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield and wants it to succeed at the negotiating table if it comes to that.

●      Deliveries are made every day. And not only from the United States, although we are the largest donor. More than 40 other countries also contribute to security in one way or another.

“There is no doubt that Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, is a state sponsor of terrorism. What he did, giving the order to go to Ukraine, was a terrorist act. He is a war criminal, and he is responsible for every crime that was done on his behalf,” Idaho Republican Senator James Risch says.

Website of the European Council:  The European Council reiterates that it firmly stands with Ukraine and that the European Union will continue to provide strong support for Ukraine’s overall economic, military, social, and financial resilience, including humanitarian aid:

●      EU heads of state and government recognized Russia as a country that bears sole responsibility for the artificially created global food crisis

Ministry of Finance:  Russia has made payments in the amount of $234.85 million on external debt in rubles.  The Russian Federation considers such obligations fulfilled in full, however, both issues are denominated in dollars. Repayment of debt in another currency for investors is not considered the fulfillment of obligations. As a result, it can lead to default.

The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu stated the need to "take urgent measures to strengthen the defense capability of the union state of Russia and Belarus".

Europol website:  The EU exposed an Internet platform where Ukrainian refugees were trapped through social networks and sold into sexual and labor slavery, according to the.  It was possible to expose the network thanks to the coordination of law enforcement officers from 14 EU countries and Europol. Started 15 investigations.

American manufacturer of network equipment Cisco announced the decision to withdraw from Russia and Belarus.

Ukraine signed a contract with the German arms manufacturer Diehl Defense on the acquisition of the IRIS-T air defense system, which is not even in service with the Bundeswehr, – Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany.

European Broadcasting Union:  Eurovision 2023 will not take place in Ukraine.  The Union reports that it has “regretfully” decided to move the Eurovision 2023 to another country. Discussions about finding a suitable venue for the competition are still ongoing.

Microsoft promises to reduce business in the Russian Federation until there is "nothing left" of it, – Microsoft President.

Türkiye Foreign Minister If the parties manage to reach a consensus at the talks in Istanbul, a control center and a safe zone will be created immediately outside Ukrainian territorial waters. In this zone, ships going to Ukrainian ports and back will be checked to make sure they don't have weapons or anything like that.  Türkiye is negotiating with the UN to reach an appropriate agreement, as well as with Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Financial Times: Estonian Prime Minister - Estonia would be wiped off the face of the earth in the event of a Russian invasion due to an ineffective NATO plan to protect the Baltic states.  According to Kallas, NATO's existing plan implies that the Baltic states, in the event of a Russian invasion, can remain under occupation for 180 days before the alliance liberates them.  She called for at least 20-25 thousand NATO soldiers to be sent to each of the Baltic countries.

Reuters:  UK ready to help Ukraine clear mines off its southern coast to help grain exports.

UNESCO:  During the hostilities in Ukraine, 152 cultural objects were partially or completely destroyed.  According to estimates, there are 70 religious buildings, 30 historical buildings, 18 houses of culture, 15 monuments, 12 museums and 7 libraries among them.  Three quarters of the damaged objects are concentrated in three regions: in the Donetsk region, in the Kharkiv region and in the Kyiv region.

Kremlin website:  The BRICS countries support the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This in a joint statement by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Channel 24:  The elite began to evacuate from Belarus, citing sources in the Ukrainian special services.  "It is quite possible that such measures are due to the fear of the Belarusian leadership to be left without fuel in the event of an attack. The actual evacuation from Mozyr began after 20 June. Wealthy individuals began to organize the evacuation of their families abroad or north of Belarus," sources told reporters.

US media:  The Pentagon revealed the details of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine.  Ukraine will be supplied with: 4 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, 18 boats, 36,000 artillery shells, 1,200 grenade launchers, 2,000 machine guns.

●      ”HIMARS” will be bigger.  John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator for the US National Security Council, said the White House plans to help Ukraine as much as necessary and possible.  This also applies to MLRS.

DW: In the world market, prices for a number of goods have fallen sharply, then rising sharply in recent years, which has accelerated global inflation. In particular, oil, wood, grain and vegetable oils have become cheaper.

French President:  The European Union will make every effort to ensure that Ukraine obtains membership under a simplified procedure.  “We understand that Ukraine is now embroiled in a conflict. Now we are doing everything possible so that Ukraine can become a member of the EU under a simplified procedure,” Macron said.

Australian Ambassador to Ukraine:  First batch of Australian M113AS4 armored personnel carriers on the way.  In total, Australia allocated A$285 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine.

The UK has announced new sanctions against Russia.  They include restrictions on the supply of jet fuel, technologies and products of oil refining and other key industries, as well as a ban on the export and use of pounds sterling and EU banknotes in the Russian Federation.

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama advises Ukrainians not to have false hopes about the status of an EU candidate.  North Macedonia has been a candidate for 17 years, if I’m not mistaken, Albania for nine. We welcome Ukraine, it’s good to grant candidate status. But I hope that the people of Ukraine will not have big illusions about this.”

Reuters:  India has granted certification to dozens of vessels of the Dubai-based subsidiary of Russian largest shipping company Sovcomflot.  In this way India is assisting Russia to circumvent sanctions limiting Russian vessel access to ports.

The four maps below illustrate who is winning and who is losing after the start of invasion.  Russia advanced before Ukraine prepared itself for war starting on February 24.  Since then Russia has crawled, bellied backwards.

NATIONAL

Hraty:  On June 23, Solomianskyi District Court of Kyiv began a preparatory sitting on the case of the Russian military Mikhail Romanov, accused of killing a civilian man and sexual violence against the man’s wife.  His case became the first rape case by the Russian military during the war, which was sent to court.

State Security Service:  Terminated the activities of the organization engaged in illegal mining of Ukrainian subsoil on an industrial scale. It was led by an influential Russian businessman who owned a whole financial industrial group. The mining company is valued at more than 1 billion UAH. The company spent its millions of dollars on financing the full-scale aggression of Russia, and on material support of the occupation administrations in Crimea and the east of Ukraine.  In the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions, its commercial structures engaged in large-scale extraction of sand and rubble without paying taxes to the state budget.

In Kherson the car of one of the famous local collaborators Dmytro Savluchenko was destroyed by a bomb. He died at the scene.  Savluchenko has long been engaged in anti-Ukrainian activities in the city. He was a member of the youth organization "New Rus", and a pro-Russian activist from the Sharii’ party.

The "Freedom of Russia" military legion captured a Russian soldier who is under the age of 18. "We have another prisoner mobilized from Luhansk. The guy is not 18 years yet" - says the message.

Forbes: McDonald's will reopen its restaurants in Ukraine in August.    The McDonald’s restaurant near the Kyiv Railroad Station was the busiest McDonald’s in the world, followed by the McDonald’s on Independence Square in 3rdPlace.

Citizens of the Russian Federation will be able to apply for Ukrainian visas through VFS Global centers in eight cities of Russia, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said.  At the same time, the department warns that having a visa does not guarantee entry into the country: the final decision is up to the border guards.

State Border Guard:  Russia is concentrating troops near the northern borders of Ukraine not to attack, but to divert the defense forces of Ukraine.

Saboteurs were detained in Kyiv at 18:00 June 23, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

●      Belarus can provide Russia with its weapons and military equipment, which the Russian Federation can subsequently transfer to the Donetsk or Kherson areas to strengthen its groups.

At the initiative of the SBU (Ukrainian Intelligence - ed.), 12 pro-Russian parties have already been banned in Ukraine:

●      Opposition platform - For life

●      Opposition Bloc

●      Sharii's Party

●      NASHI (Our's)

●      Socialists

●      Left Opposition

●      Fairness and development

●      Derzhava (State)

●      Block of Volodymyr Saldo

●      Socialist Party of Ukraine

●      Union of Left Forces

●      Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine

According to reports from the Ukrainian Resistance Movement, the Russians want to time the voting in the so-called "referendum" to Russian "single voting day" on 11 September.  Elections of deputies and governors in several regions are scheduled on the territory of the Russian Federation on this day.

Ukraine’s Military Technical Intelligence Unit, together with artillerymen, worked out coordination of tasks to destroy Russian equipment, ammunition and manpower.

Minister of Education:  Security guards, special alarm equipment and training children in evacuation will appear in Ukrainian schools

Minister of Digital Transformation:  The "Diya.City" project received the Emerging Europe Awards in the Modern and Future-Proof Policymaking nomination.  The award celebrates the projects of countries that are changing the life of the developing region of Europe.  The winners are chosen by people from all over the world who can vote online for the project.

Operational report of the General Staff

07:49 June 24

●      As part of the logistical support, the Russians are trying to de-mine the waters of the Berdyansk seaport.

●      The Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were discovered and defeated by Ukrainian soldiers. The remnants of the Russian sabotage and intelligence unit fled in panic.

●      The Russians are launching an offensive around the settlement of Myrna Dolyna, and the fighting continues. The Ukrainian military successfully suspended the offensive actions of Russian troops in the Borivske area.

●      In the Severodonetsk direction, the Russians fired from tanks, mortars, barrels and rocket artillery near Lysychansk, Sievierodonetsk, Bila Hora, Vovchoiarivka, Spirne and Berestove. Russians launched airstrikes on Lysychansk and Borivske.

●      Fighting for Severodonetsk continues.

19:24 June 23

●      In the Siversk direction, the Russian troops fired on civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Stari Vyrky, Atynske and Starykovo.

●      In the Kharkiv direction, the Russian army carried out artillery shelling of civilian and military infrastructure.

●      In the Sloviansk direction, the Russian Federation is shelling civilian infrastructure from cannon artillery and multiple launch missile systems.

●      Feeling no support among the residents of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, the Russians are afraid of the total resistance of the local population. In this regard, they carry out illegal searches, make detentions and arrests.

●      Ukrainian units continue to carry out rocket and artillery fire missions in certain areas and beat the invaders in close combat.

British Intelligence June 24

●      Ukrainian forces announced the captured pilot of a Russian SU-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft shot down on June 17 was a former Russian air force Major who worked as a Wagner military contractor and had flown several missions during the conflict.

●      The use of retired personnel, now working as Wagner contractors, to conduct close air support missions indicated that the Russian air force likely is struggling to support the invasion of Ukraine with sufficient aircrew.  This is likely due to a combination of Russia’s insufficient numbers of suitably trained personnel and its combat losses.

●      Whilst conducting his missions, the Russian pilot reportedly used commercial GPS devices rather than Russian military navigation equipment.  This likely indicates that Wagner aircraft are older models of the SU-25 and that the Russian air force is not [providing Wagner with up to date avionics equipment.

Institute for the Study of War - June 23

●      Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

●      Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.

●      Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.

●      Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.

●      Russian authorities are continuing measures to facilitate the economic integration of occupied areas.

CHERNIHIV

Regional Military Administration:  Russians shelled the Chernihiv region at night - 5 explosions were recorded in Senkivka. Preliminarily, the shelling was made from a mortar. 20 mortar explosions were recorded near the village of Yanzhulivka, Semenivka territorial community.

SUMY

Regional Military Administration:  Russia fired phosphorus rockets at the villages of the Yunakovskaya district. Phosphorus shells are prohibited in warfare! Information about the victims and destruction is being specified.

KHARKIV

Regional Military Administration:  In temporarily occupied Balakliya and Izyum, Kharkiv region, Russians are torturing people in basements.  There is no water, sewerage, electricity, pensions and salaries. Entry and exit from the occupied territories is closed.

The mayor of Pivdeni, Kharkiv region, Oleksandr Bryukhanov, was found guilty of encroaching on the territorial integrity of Ukraine and sentenced to a suspended sentence.  From the verdict of the Kievsky District Court of Kharkiv, it follows that Bryukhanov on the afternoon of February 27, during a meeting, called on local residents not to resist Russia.

The mayor of Chuhuiv, the Kharkiv region:  Advises taking children out of the city due to increased shelling, if possible. According to her, there has not been such intensity since the beginning of the war:  “I would leave if I were them. In order to save the lives and health of our children… Therefore, I strongly ask those who have the opportunity to wait out these terrible days elsewhere, do it.”

Two residents of Balakleya died as a result of shellingon June 23.  10 residents of the Kharkiv region were injured: Chyhyiv - 6 (including two children, 6 and 9 years old), 1 resident of the village. Bolshaya Babka of the Chuhyivskyi district, 1 resident of the Zolochiv society, 2 residents of Andriivka in the Izyum region.

LUHANSK

Regional Military Administration:  In the temporary occupied territories, the Russians have already begun the so-called "filtration".  Russians are hunting for activists and people involved in military affairs, and relatives of such categories of people. Men are forced to go to war against Ukraine.

●      Ukraine does not rule out the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Severodonetsk to "more fortified positions."June 23

●      The Ukrainian military was ordered to withdraw from Severodonetsk.  The city is 90% destroyed and 80% of homes will have to be demolished.

●      "Many defensive structures have already been destroyed in the Severodonetsk industrial zone, we do not exclude the possibility of retreating to new, more fortified positions".

●      In the event of the capture of Severodonetsk, civilians hiding on the territory of the Azot plant will only be able to enter the occupied territories.

●      The Russians damaged the territory of «Azot» and a brick factory in Severodonetsk and shelled the villages of Synetskyi and Pavlohrad and three bridges, which were smashed a few weeks ago.

●      On 23 June and this morning, the Russians launched an offensive action in the Myrna Dolyna; fighting continues.

●      The Russian offensive in the Borivske area was successfully halted. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repulsed the offensive in the direction of the southern outskirts of Lysychansk. However, Russian forces from the 1st Army Corps managed to capture Mykolaivka.

●      Russians helicopters attacked roads and bridges leading to Lysychansk. The bridge was damaged, now only light vehicles can pass it, a truck will no longer pass into the city.

●      The Hirske community is under complete occupation: local battles continue in the vicinity.  "The invaders entered from two sides: one part of the enemy forces went to the rear, namely the settlements of Myrna Dolyna, Pidlisne, Loskutivka, the other part in the direction of Hirske and Zolotyi".

DONETSK

Adviser to the mayor:  Residents of the temporarily occupied Mariupol are collecting rainwater again. The left-bank district remains virtually cut off from any water supply.

●      A fire at a Mariupol landfill is burning for the third day, filling the Prymorskyi district of the city with smoke and stink.  “A fire in a garbage dump emits a lot of chemical poison into the air every second. No measures have been taken by occupiers to localize or put out the fire. The occupiers have no capacity to do so. The consequences of such behavior will be catastrophic.

Regional Military Administration:  On June 23 six civilians were killed in the Ukrainian controlled Donetsk region. In uncontrolled Donetsk, which is also under shelling, four wounded and one dead were reported today.

ZAPORIZHIA

Regional Military Administration:  The Russian military fired at the Zaporizhia region from rocket-propelled grenade launchers - struck infrastructure facilities near one of the settlements. The targets were civilian infrastructure in Balabyne, Novoiakovlivka Hulaipole.  The Russian troops shelled Balabyne from multiple rocket systems. There are no casualties among the population.

●      Also, the Russians shelled the Ukrainian Armed Forces positions, using rocket and barrel artillery along the entire line of battle 20 times.

●      Ukrainian artillery personnel stopped these bombardments and destroyed the rocket launcher 9P140 "Grad", 152 mm howitzer 2A65 "MSTA-B" and armored personnel carrier.

KHERSON

Social Media:  For the second day in a row, explosions are heard in temporarily occupied Kherson.

Operational command Pivden (South): A sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Russian Federation tried to penetrate to the rear of our troops, but received a powerful fire rebuff, suffered losses and was forced to retreat.

MOST:  Andriy Putilov, the former head of the Kherson Regional State Administration, was released from captivity. On April 9, 2022, the Russians took the official prisoner. It is known that he is undergoing treatment in Kyiv.

DNIPRO

Regional Military Administration:  Russians shelled the Kryvyi Rih district with «Grad» rocket launchers and hit Hrechani Pody and Shyroke territorial communities.  People, fortunately, were not injured. There is destruction in the Shyroke territorial community.

MYKOLAIV

Mayor:  During the recent shelling of Mykolaiv, the Russians hit a mass grave of Soviet army soldiers who died during the liberation of the city.

CRIMEA

NASA satellite photos:  The fire at the gas drilling rigs in the Black Sea, which the Armed Forces hit with a missile strike on June 21, continues.

Social Networks:  Partisans in Crimea began posting leaflets in Simferopol advising Russian military, colonists and collaborators that their days are numbered.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.